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Popular markets commentator Citrini7 recently published a compelling and popular piece of AI doomer fiction, admittedly with some small probability of occurring. But I am old enough to have seen many cycles of economic doomsaying. I want to present a critique of Citrini's work and show a much likelier, more positive view of the future.

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WEB 4. 0: The birth of superintelligent life

What if our AI bullishness continues to be right...and what if that’s actually bearish?

What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. This isn’t bear porn or AI doomer fan-fiction. The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored. Our friend Alap Shah posed the question, and together we brainstormed the answer. We wrote this part, and he’s written two others you can find here.

Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.